Valuation · EV/EBITDA model
Is Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) stock overvalued?
On November 3, 2026, with the shares at $331.32, a quick EV/EBITDA model by Brief Equity valued Zebra Technologies at about $246 for 2028. Zebra Technologies looks overvalued on that model if humanoid robots come to do a real share of the work of the frontline workers who use its mobile computers and scanners.
By The Brief Equity Team · Model dated · Published
The model's assumptions for Zebra Technologies
Zebra Technologies' fiscal year is the calendar year, and the last year it has reported is 2025. The model runs three years, to 2028. Every row below is the model's own except the analyst consensus revenue.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue, model | 6.29 | 6.61 | 6.87 |
| Revenue growth, model | 16.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% |
| EBITDA, model | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.24 |
| EBITDA margin, model | 19.0% | 18.5% | 18.0% |
| Revenue, analyst consensus | 6.23 | 6.61 | 6.93 |
Why Zebra Technologies looks overvalued
Zebra Technologies makes the mobile computers and barcode scanners that frontline workers carry.
Humanoid robots are starting to move beyond pilots. On October 26, 2026, GXO and Agility Robotics said Agility's Digit humanoids will go to two more GXO warehouses, with deployments expected to begin in early 2027. In January 2026 Boston Dynamics said every Atlas robot it deploys in 2026 is already committed to Hyundai and Google DeepMind.
Zebra Technologies' chief executive said on the company's first-quarter 2026 call:
“So I'd say automation augments workers doesn't replace workers and we've seen automation in place for a long time, and we continue to see the demand for Zebra solution continue to grow.”
William Burns, Chief Executive Officer, Zebra Technologies first-quarter 2026 earnings call, May 12, 2026
In the first quarter of 2026 Zebra Technologies completed the sale of its robotics automation business to Skild AI, for total consideration of $20 million.
The model has Zebra Technologies' revenue growing 16.6% in 2026, the first full year to include Elo, then 5.0% in 2027 and 4.0% in 2028. The company says each of its two segments has a 5% to 7% organic sales growth profile over a cycle, so the model sits at the low end of that range in 2027 and below it in 2028. The EBITDA margin falls from 19.0% in 2026 to 18.0% in 2028. With an exit multiple of 10.0 times EBITDA, the model values Zebra Technologies at about $246 a share for 2028, about 26% below the share price.
In 2026 Brady bought Honeywell's Productivity Solutions and Services business, which supplies mobile computers, barcode scanners and printers, for about 8 times that business's EBITDA for the 12 months ended December 31, 2025. That business's revenue fell almost 6% in 2025.
Humanoids are not yet in production at GXO. On GXO's second-quarter 2026 call in August, asked how many of its robots this year would be humanoids, its chief executive Patrick Kelleher said that in production, zero would be.
What has to be true, and what would break it
Zebra Technologies looks overvalued on this model if humanoid robots take on a real share of frontline work and its growth falls to the low end of its own range.
What has to be true
- Humanoid robots move from pilots into production in warehouses and factories over the next few years.
- Zebra Technologies' revenue grows 5.0% in 2027 and 4.0% in 2028, at and below the low end of the 5% to 7% organic range the company gives each segment over a cycle.
- Zebra Technologies' EBITDA margin falls from 19.0% in 2026 to 18.0% in 2028.
- The market pays about 10.0 times Zebra Technologies' EBITDA at the end of 2028.
What would break it
- Humanoids stay in pilots, as at GXO, which said none of its robots in production in 2026 would be humanoids.
- Automation keeps adding to demand for Zebra Technologies' devices, as its chief executive said on the first-quarter 2026 call.
- Zebra Technologies' revenue grows faster than 5.0% in 2027 and 4.0% in 2028, or its EBITDA margin holds near 19.0%.
- The market keeps paying more than 10.0 times Zebra Technologies' EBITDA at the end of 2028.
The parts of Zebra Technologies's business
Zebra Technologies reports its net sales in two segments: Connected Frontline, which includes mobile computing and Elo, and Asset Visibility & Automation, which includes printing, supplies, RFID, data capture and machine vision.
| Share of revenue | Share of revenue growth | |
|---|---|---|
| Connected Frontline | 54.9% | 59.3% |
| Asset Visibility & Automation | 45.1% | 40.7% |
Zebra Technologies beside its peers
Zebra Technologies is compared here with seven US-listed companies, chosen to cover its devices, its machine vision and RFID businesses, the business Honeywell sold to Brady, and the automation companies whose robots may take on frontline work.
- BRC: Owner of Honeywell's former scanner, mobile computer and printer business
- MSI: Rugged devices for frontline workers
- CGNX: Machine vision and industrial barcode readers
- TDY: Machine vision cameras
- AVY: RFID tags and labels
- SYM: Warehouse automation robots
- ROK: Factory automation
How the estimate moves with its assumptions
The two Zebra Technologies cards below test the estimate: the sensitivity grids move two assumptions at a time, and the Monte Carlo card reruns the model many times with growth, margin and the exit multiple drawn at random.
Questions about Zebra Technologies
These questions about Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) are answered from the documents listed under Sources.
- How much did Zebra Technologies pay for Elo?
- Zebra Technologies acquired Elo Holdings on September 30, 2025 for $1,303 million in cash, net of cash on hand.
- Who are Zebra Technologies' largest customers?
- Three distributors each accounted for more than 10% of Zebra Technologies' net sales in 2025, at 29%, 15% and 15% of the total.
- How much debt does Zebra Technologies have?
- As of October 3, 2026, Zebra Technologies had cash and cash equivalents of $182 million and total debt of $2,578 million.
- How much free cash flow does Zebra Technologies expect in 2026?
- As of November 3, 2026, Zebra Technologies expected free cash flow of at least $1 billion for the full year 2026.
- How many shares has Zebra Technologies repurchased in 2026?
- Zebra Technologies made share repurchases of $643 million in the first nine months of 2026.
Sources
The quotations and facts about Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) on this page rest on the documents below.
- Zebra Technologies annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, February 12, 2026
- Zebra Technologies quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the second quarter of 2026, August 4, 2026
- Zebra Technologies third-quarter 2026 results release, November 3, 2026
- Zebra Technologies second-quarter 2026 earnings call, August 4, 2026
- Zebra Technologies first-quarter 2026 earnings call, May 12, 2026
- GXO and Agility Robotics expand partnership to accelerate deployment of humanoids in U.S. operations, October 26, 2026
- Boston Dynamics unveils new Atlas robot, January 5, 2026
- Report on GXO's robot fleet and humanoid pilots, September 23, 2026
- Report on Brady's $1.4 billion purchase of Honeywell's Productivity Solutions and Services business, April 20, 2026
- Honeywell closes sale of its productivity solutions and services business to Brady, August 5, 2026
About this page
Brief Equity and its team hold no position in Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) as of November 3, 2026.
This page is research, not investment advice. It describes one model and the assumptions behind it, and market data is delayed. Read how these models are built and our editorial policy.
Related guides: How to read a 10-K (SEC filing), Where to read earnings transcripts and filings in one place, How to value a stock yourself (without Excel).