Why did IQVIA's backlog fall in the third quarter of 2026?

IQVIA removed approximately $2.1 billion of inactive trials from its R&D Solutions backlog after a review, leaving contracted backlog of $32.6 billion at September 30, 2026. The company said the adjustment has no impact on historical results, 2026 guidance, book-to-bill or next-twelve-month revenue from backlog.

When will IQVIA give its 2027 outlook?

IQVIA will host an Investor Day on December 1, 2026, where it said it will share a broad framework for 2027. It plans to give detailed 2027 guidance with its fourth-quarter results in February 2027.

How much debt does IQVIA have?

At September 30, 2026, IQVIA's debt was $16,067 million and its cash and cash equivalents were $2,249 million, for net debt of $13,818 million. Its net leverage ratio was 3.45x trailing twelve-month Adjusted EBITDA.

How did IQVIA change its segments in 2026?

From January 1, 2026, IQVIA reports two segments, Commercial Solutions and Research & Development Solutions. Contract Sales & Medical Solutions was folded into Technology & Analytics Solutions, renamed Commercial Solutions, and Real-World Late Phase moved to Research & Development Solutions.

Valuation · DCF model

Is IQVIA (IQV) stock overvalued?

Brief Equity's quick DCF model of IQVIA, dated October 29, 2026, values the shares at about $251 today, about 10% below the share price of $279.04, the previous day's close. On analyst consensus growth IQVIA looks somewhat expensive after its shares climbed from $156.66 in April 2026. It could still be an opportunity if its order book lifts revenue growth to about 8.8% a year, the rate the share price implies with the rest of the model unchanged.

All valuations →

By The Brief Equity Team · Model dated October 29, 2026 · Published October 29, 2026

Brief Equity valuation model card for IQVIA (IQV): a DCF model with projected revenue, EBITDA, margins and free cash flow to 2028 and a value per share today. — The IQVIA model card as captured on October 29, 2026: the model's value, the share price that day and the projection behind them.

The model's assumptions for IQVIA

IQVIA's fiscal year is the calendar year and it reports in US dollars. The model runs three years, to 2028, with revenue growing at the analyst consensus rate, and the second table sets the model's revenue beside analyst consensus revenue for the same years.

IQVIA: model assumptions, 2026 to 2028 (revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow in USD billions)
	2026	2027	2028
Revenue, model	17.35	18.46	19.65
Revenue growth, model	6.4%	6.4%	6.4%
EBITDA, model	3.54	3.77	4.01
EBITDA margin, model	20.4%	20.4%	20.4%
Free cash flow, model	2.95	3.14	3.34

IQVIA: model revenue and analyst consensus revenue, 2026 to 2028 (USD billions)
	2026	2027	2028
Revenue, model	17.35	18.46	19.65
Revenue, analyst consensus	17.45	18.50	19.64

Why IQVIA looks overvalued

IQVIA's share price closed at $279.04 on October 28, 2026, up from $156.66 on April 29, 2026, and close to $282.61, its closing price on December 30, 2021. Brief Equity's model suggests the shares look somewhat expensive at that price, though they could be an opportunity if the company's order book lifts revenue growth well above the rate analysts expect.

IQVIA's clinical bookings support that more hopeful view. Net new bookings in R&D Solutions were $3.2 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up 15% on a year earlier and the company's strongest clinical quarter since 2022, and bookings over the last twelve months reached $11.7 billion, up 14%.

“Third quarter net new bookings were $3.2 billion, up 15% year-over-year, representing a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2x. Last-twelve-month net new bookings were $11.7 billion, up 14% year-over-year.”

IQVIA third-quarter 2026 results release, October 27, 2026

IQVIA's revenue has not yet grown at that pace. The company guides 2026 revenue growth of 6.4% to 7.3%, a range that includes 250 basis points from acquisitions, and the chief financial officer put organic growth in the third quarter at approximately 6%.

In the model, IQVIA's revenue grows at the analyst consensus rate of 6.4% a year through 2028, and the discounted cash flows come to about $251 a share today, about 10% below the price. Holding the rest of the model unchanged, the share price of $279.04 implies revenue growth of 8.8% a year.

IQVIA's chief executive puts the long-term growth of large pharmaceutical companies' research and development spending at 2% to 3% a year, and large pharmaceutical companies account for approximately 50% of IQVIA's R&D Solutions revenue.

What has to be true, and what would break it

IQVIA looks expensive on this model while a few things hold, and the view fails if they stop holding.

What has to be true

IQVIA's revenue keeps growing close to the analyst consensus rate in 2027 and 2028.
Organic growth stays near the approximately 6% of the third quarter of 2026, with acquisitions supplying the rest of reported growth.
Spending on research and development by large pharmaceutical companies keeps growing at the 2% to 3% a year the chief executive describes.

What would break it

The bookings of 2026 turn into revenue growth well above the analyst consensus rate in 2027 and 2028, without further acquisitions.
Emerging biopharmaceutical companies, about 35% of R&D Solutions revenue, keep raising funding and starting trials at a faster pace.

The parts of IQVIA's business

IQVIA reported three segments for 2025, before moving to two segments on January 1, 2026, and the shares below cover the full year 2025.

IQVIA by part, year ended December 31, 2025 against year ended December 31, 2024
	Share of revenue	Share of revenue growth
Research & Development Solutions	54.5%	40.8%
Technology & Analytics Solutions	40.6%	51.5%
Contract Sales & Medical Solutions	4.8%	7.7%

IQVIA beside its peers

IQVIA is compared here with six US-listed companies chosen to cover its clinical research and its commercial data businesses.

ICLR: Clinical trial services, against R&D Solutions
MEDP: Clinical trial services for smaller biotechnology companies
CRL: Early-stage drug research services
LH: Central laboratory services for clinical trials
TMO: Clinical research services through PPD, inside a laboratory tools company
VEEV: Life sciences software and data, against Commercial Solutions

Peer comparison table for IQVIA (IQV) and six clinical research, laboratory and life sciences data companies, with each company's valuation multiples, revenue growth and margin. — IQVIA beside ICON, Medpace, Charles River Laboratories, Labcorp, Thermo Fisher Scientific and Veeva Systems on trailing multiples, as captured on October 29, 2026.

How the estimate moves with its assumptions

The two pictures below show how far the IQVIA estimate moves when its assumptions change: one moves two assumptions at a time, and the other runs the model many times with growth, margin and the exit multiple drawn at random.

Sensitivity grids for IQVIA (IQV): the per-share value as revenue growth, EBITDA margin, the exit multiple, the discount rate and terminal growth change. — How the IQVIA estimate changes when two assumptions move together. The exit grids are discounted to today's dollars.

Monte Carlo distribution of per-share outcomes for IQVIA (IQV), with the share price at the model's date and the median outcome marked. — The spread of outcomes for IQVIA when growth, margin and the exit multiple vary at random.

Questions about IQVIA

These questions about IQVIA (IQV) are answered from the documents listed under Sources.

Why did IQVIA's backlog fall in the third quarter of 2026?: IQVIA removed approximately $2.1 billion of inactive trials from its R&D Solutions backlog after a review, leaving contracted backlog of $32.6 billion at September 30, 2026. The company said the adjustment has no impact on historical results, 2026 guidance, book-to-bill or next-twelve-month revenue from backlog.
When will IQVIA give its 2027 outlook?: IQVIA will host an Investor Day on December 1, 2026, where it said it will share a broad framework for 2027. It plans to give detailed 2027 guidance with its fourth-quarter results in February 2027.
How much debt does IQVIA have?: At September 30, 2026, IQVIA's debt was $16,067 million and its cash and cash equivalents were $2,249 million, for net debt of $13,818 million. Its net leverage ratio was 3.45x trailing twelve-month Adjusted EBITDA.
How did IQVIA change its segments in 2026?: From January 1, 2026, IQVIA reports two segments, Commercial Solutions and Research & Development Solutions. Contract Sales & Medical Solutions was folded into Technology & Analytics Solutions, renamed Commercial Solutions, and Real-World Late Phase moved to Research & Development Solutions.

Sources

The quotations and facts about IQVIA (IQV) on this page rest on the documents below.

IQVIA third-quarter 2026 results release, October 27, 2026
IQVIA quarterly report (Form 10-Q) for the third quarter of 2026, October 27, 2026
IQVIA annual report (Form 10-K) for 2025, February 17, 2026
IQVIA third-quarter 2026 earnings call, October 27, 2026
IQVIA second-quarter 2026 earnings call, July 28, 2026
Daily closing prices for IQVIA (IQV), 2020 to 2026, October 29, 2026

About this page

Brief Equity and its team hold no position in IQVIA (IQV) as of October 29, 2026.

This page is research, not investment advice. It describes one model and the assumptions behind it, and market data is delayed. Read how these models are built and our editorial policy.