Skip to main content

Valuation · EV/EBITDA model

Is Hexcel (HXL) stock undervalued?

Brief Equity's quick EV/EBITDA model of Hexcel, dated October 27, 2026, puts the shares at about $146 for 2028, against a price of $78.90 that day. On those assumptions Hexcel looks cheap, with the model's value about 85% above the price. The view rests on Hexcel finally turning its commercial aerospace ramp into higher margins: the A350 ramp arriving as planned, renewed contracts priced higher, and this year's hiring paying back in margins.

All valuations →

By The Brief Equity Team · Model dated · Published

Brief Equity valuation model card for Hexcel (HXL): an EV/EBITDA exit model with projected revenue, EBITDA and margins to 2028 and a value for 2028.
The Hexcel model card as captured on October 27, 2026: the model's value, the share price that day and the projection behind them.

The model's assumptions for Hexcel

Hexcel's fiscal year is the calendar year, so each year in the tables below is the company's own. The model runs three years, to 2028, and the second table sets the model's revenue beside analyst consensus revenue for the same years.

Hexcel: model assumptions, 2026 to 2028 (revenue and EBITDA in USD millions)
202620272028
Revenue, model2,092.762,364.822,648.60
Revenue growth, model10.5%13.0%12.0%
EBITDA, model387.16472.96569.45
EBITDA margin, model18.5%20.0%21.5%
Hexcel: model revenue and analyst consensus revenue, 2026 to 2028 (USD millions)
202620272028
Revenue, model2,092.762,364.822,648.60
Revenue, analyst consensus2084.812297.272524.40

Why Hexcel looks undervalued

Brief Equity's model of Hexcel assumes that things go right for the company, and on that model Hexcel looks cheap at $78.90.

Hexcel's results have not recovered to their 2019 level. Its net sales were $2,355.7 million in 2019, with an operating margin of 18.0%, and $1,893.9 million in 2025, with an operating margin of 9.1%. Its shares closed 2019 at $73.31 and stood at $78.90 on October 27, 2026, after closing at $110.28 on July 24, 2026.

Hexcel's largest program is the Airbus A350, and the company expects to deliver around 100 A350 shipsets in 2027, about 25% more than in 2026, and says the production lines it has in place can support the 12 aircraft a month that Airbus has indicated for 2028. Commercial Aerospace made up 66% of Hexcel's sales in the first nine months of 2026 and grew 19.1%, while Defense, Space & Other fell 6.8%.

“Our initial outlook on the A350 our largest program, is that we will deliver around 100 shipsets in 2027, approximately a 25% increase over 2026.”

Thomas C. Gentile, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, Hexcel third-quarter 2026 earnings call, October 22, 2026

Hexcel's long-term agreements with customers come due at a rate of 15% to 20% a year, and the company says it is getting price increases as it renegotiates them. Its agreements with Airbus, which it says represent 40% of its business, run until the end of 2030.

Hexcel hired about 525 people by the end of September 2026, against a plan of 400 for the whole year, and the company said the cost of accelerated hiring and training weighed on its third quarter. Management describes a path to an adjusted operating margin of about 18% before the end of the decade, and as high as 20% with better pricing.

In the model, Hexcel's revenue grows 10.5% in 2026, 13% in 2027 and 12% in 2028, against analyst consensus of 10.1% a year from 2025 to 2028. Its EBIT margin rises from 12% in 2026 to 15% in 2028, still below the company's 18% target. At 20 times 2028 EBITDA, the shares come to about $146 in 2028, about 85% above the price.

What has to be true, and what would break it

Hexcel looks cheap on this model only while a few things hold, and the view fails if they stop holding.

What has to be true

  • Hexcel delivers around 100 A350 shipsets in 2027, as it expects.
  • Hexcel's renewed long-term agreements keep coming in at higher prices.
  • The cost of Hexcel's 2026 hiring fades as volume rises, and its margins climb toward the company's 18% target.

What would break it

  • Aircraft build signals weaken during the year, as in 2025, when Hexcel lowered its guidance twice.
  • Hexcel's margins stay near their 2025 level because the cost of the extra staff and capacity grows faster than sales.

The parts of Hexcel's business

Hexcel reports its sales by market, Commercial Aerospace and Defense, Space & Other, and in 2025 Hexcel's sales did not grow, so no part contributed to growth that year.

Hexcel by part, 2025 against 2024
Share of revenue
Commercial Aerospace60.6%
Defense, Space & Other39.4%

Hexcel beside its peers

Hexcel is compared here with eight US-listed aerospace suppliers and materials makers chosen to cover its commercial aerospace materials business and its defense side.

  • HWM: Engine and structural parts on the same aircraft build-rate ramp as Hexcel
  • ATI: Aerospace specialty materials, like Hexcel's composites
  • CRS: Aerospace alloys, another materials supplier to the same programs
  • WWD: Commercial aerospace components
  • DCO: An aerostructures supplier
  • SARO: Commercial engine maintenance and overhaul
  • LOAR: Aerospace components
  • CW: Defense, against Hexcel's Defense, Space & Other sales
Peer comparison table for Hexcel (HXL) and eight aerospace suppliers and materials makers, with each company's valuation multiples, revenue growth and margin.
Hexcel beside Howmet Aerospace, ATI, Carpenter Technology, Woodward, Ducommun, StandardAero, Loar and Curtiss-Wright on trailing multiples, as captured on October 27, 2026.

How the estimate moves with its assumptions

The two pictures below show how far the Hexcel estimate moves when its assumptions change: one moves two assumptions at a time, and the other runs the model many times with growth, margin and the exit multiple drawn at random.

Sensitivity grids for Hexcel (HXL): the per-share value as revenue growth, EBITDA margin, the exit multiple, the discount rate and terminal growth change.
How the Hexcel estimate changes when two assumptions move together. The exit grids are discounted to today's dollars.
Monte Carlo distribution of per-share outcomes for Hexcel (HXL), with the share price at the model's date and the median outcome marked.
The spread of outcomes for Hexcel when growth, margin and the exit multiple vary at random.

Questions about Hexcel

These questions about Hexcel (HXL) are answered from the documents listed under Sources.

How much of Hexcel's sales go to Airbus and Boeing?
In 2025, about 39% of Hexcel's net sales went to Airbus and its subcontractors and about 13% to Boeing and its subcontractors.
How much debt does Hexcel have?
At September 30, 2026, Hexcel's total debt was $934.9 million and its cash on hand was $77.8 million.
Does Hexcel pay a dividend?
On October 21, 2026, Hexcel declared a quarterly dividend of $0.18 per share, payable on November 9, 2026.
What is Hexcel's guidance for 2026?
In its third-quarter release of October 21, 2026, Hexcel kept its 2026 guidance of sales of $2.025 billion to $2.125 billion and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.30 to $2.40.

Sources

The quotations and facts about Hexcel (HXL) on this page rest on the documents below.

About this page

Brief Equity and its team hold no position in Hexcel (HXL) as of October 27, 2026.

This page is research, not investment advice. It describes one model and the assumptions behind it, and market data is delayed. Read how these models are built and our editorial policy.

Related guides: EV/EBITDA explained, What is enterprise value (EV), How to value a stock yourself (without Excel).

Build your research system.

Start free trial