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Valuation · EV/EBITDA model

Is Ecolab (ECL) stock undervalued?

On October 29, 2026, with the shares at $300.93, a quick EV/EBITDA model by Brief Equity valued Ecolab at about $418 for 2028. Ecolab looks undervalued on that model, but the shares already trade at 33.66 times forward earnings, so the view holds only if Global High-Tech, its data center and chip-plant water unit, reaches the $4 billion of annual sales Ecolab is targeting for 2030.

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By The Brief Equity Team · Model dated · Published

Brief Equity valuation model card for Ecolab (ECL): an EV/EBITDA exit model with projected revenue, EBITDA and margins to 2028 and a value for 2028.
The Ecolab model card as captured on October 29, 2026: the model's value, the share price that day and the projection behind it.

The model's assumptions for Ecolab

Ecolab's fiscal year is the calendar year, so each column below is one of the company's own years. The model runs three years, to 2028, and every row is the model's own except the analyst consensus revenue.

Ecolab: model assumptions and analyst consensus revenue, 2026 to 2028 (revenue and EBITDA in USD billions)
202620272028
Revenue, model17.9319.5421.21
Revenue, analyst consensus17.9019.3120.51
Revenue growth, model11.5%9.0%8.5%
EBITDA, model4.395.085.67
EBITDA margin, model24.5%26.0%26.8%

Why Ecolab looks undervalued

Ecolab offers AI data centers cooling that uses close to no water: closed-loop liquid cooling, much of it from CoolIT, which Ecolab agreed to buy for about $4.75 billion and completed buying on July 2, 2026.

“So for us, our approach is really helping tech companies build data centers, the way we call it, done the right way, which means zero water, less power and at the right places as well at the same time.”

Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO, Ecolab third-quarter 2026 earnings call, October 27, 2026

Ecolab looks undervalued in this model at $300.93. The shares already trade at 33.66 times forward earnings, though, so the view depends on Global High-Tech, the unit that holds the data center and chip-plant water business, reaching the $4 billion of sales Ecolab is targeting for 2030.

Ecolab says Global High-Tech made approximately $150 million of sales in 2021. In July 2026 Ecolab's management put it at roughly $1.5 billion of annualized sales including Ovivo and CoolIT, and in the third quarter of 2026 it grew 63% organically, a figure that leaves out both acquisitions.

Ecolab expects the two acquisitions to add two percentage points to its annual organic sales growth one year after they close. In this model Ecolab's revenue, including the acquired businesses, grows 11.5% in 2026, 9.0% in 2027 and 8.5% in 2028, which compounds to 9.7% a year from 2025 to 2028, against 8.4% a year for analyst consensus over the same years.

Ecolab's adjusted operating income margin was 19.0% in the third quarter of 2026, and the company expects 20% for 2027. In the model, Ecolab's EBITDA margin rises from 24.5% in 2026 to 26.8% in 2028.

The model values Ecolab at 22 times its 2028 EBITDA, close to the 22.74 times EBITDA the stock traded at on October 29, 2026. On that multiple it reaches about $418 a share for 2028, about 39% above the price.

Ecolab's total debt was $13.2 billion at September 30, 2026, against $8.2 billion at December 31, 2025, after $5.0 billion of notes that funded CoolIT and general purposes. Ecolab expects CoolIT to add to adjusted earnings per share, excluding amortization, only from 2028.

What has to be true, and what would break it

Ecolab looks undervalued on this model only if its data center and chip-plant water unit keeps growing quickly, because the shares already trade at a high multiple of earnings.

What has to be true

  • Global High-Tech grows toward the $4 billion of sales Ecolab is targeting for 2030.
  • The acquisitions add about two percentage points to Ecolab's organic sales growth, as the company expects.
  • Ecolab's adjusted operating income margin reaches 20% in 2027, as the company expects.

What would break it

  • Fewer new data centers start operating, so data center sales slow.
  • CoolIT adds to earnings per share later than the 2028 Ecolab expects.
  • The stock's multiple falls below 22 times EBITDA.

The parts of Ecolab's business

Ecolab reports four segments. In 2025 Global Water, which holds Global High-Tech, was 49.6% of Ecolab's revenue and 60.8% of its revenue growth.

Ecolab by part, 2025 against 2024
Share of revenueShare of revenue growth
Global Water49.6%60.8%
Global Institutional & Specialty38.0%0.4%
Global Pest Elimination7.8%24.6%
Global Life Sciences4.7%14.3%

Ecolab beside its peers

Ecolab is compared here with eight US-listed companies: three in data center cooling, one in chip-plant materials, and four that match its water, institutional and pest control businesses.

  • VRT: Data center cooling and fluid management, against CoolIT
  • NVT: Liquid cooling equipment for data centers
  • MOD: Data center thermal equipment
  • ENTG: Purity materials for chip plants, against Ovivo Electronics
  • XYL: Water treatment, against the core of Global Water
  • LIN: Industrial chemistry sold with on-site service, against the rest of Global Water
  • CTAS: Route-based service to restaurants and facilities, against Institutional & Specialty
  • ROL: Pest control, against Pest Elimination
Peer comparison table for Ecolab (ECL) and eight companies in data center cooling, chip-plant materials, water treatment and services.
Ecolab against the eight peers listed above, on the trailing multiples the card shows.

How the estimate moves with its assumptions

The two pictures below show how far the Ecolab estimate moves when its assumptions change: one moves two assumptions at a time, and the other runs the model many times with growth, margin and the exit multiple drawn at random.

Sensitivity grids for the Ecolab (ECL) model, showing the value as two assumptions move at a time.
How the Ecolab value moves with two assumptions at a time; the exit grids are discounted to today's dollars.
Monte Carlo chart for the Ecolab (ECL) model, showing the spread of values from many runs with random assumptions.
The spread of Ecolab values when growth, margin and the exit multiple are drawn at random.

Questions about Ecolab

These questions about Ecolab (ECL) are answered from the documents listed under Sources.

When did Ecolab complete the CoolIT acquisition?
Ecolab completed the acquisition of CoolIT Systems on July 2, 2026, paying $4,627 million in cash, net of cash acquired.
How much did Ecolab pay for Ovivo Electronics?
Ecolab acquired Ovivo Electronics on December 16, 2025, for total consideration of $1,625 million in cash, net of cash acquired.
What is Ecolab's 2026 adjusted earnings guidance?
On October 27, 2026, Ecolab said it expects full year 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share of $8.10 to $8.20, up 8% to 9% on 2025.

Sources

The quotations and facts about Ecolab (ECL) on this page rest on the documents below.

About this page

Brief Equity and its team hold no position in Ecolab (ECL) as of October 29, 2026.

This page is research, not investment advice. It describes one model and the assumptions behind it, and market data is delayed. Read how these models are built and our editorial policy.

Related guides: EV/EBITDA explained, What is enterprise value (EV).

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