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Valuation · EV/EBITDA model

Is eBay (EBAY) stock overvalued?

Brief Equity's quick EV/EBITDA model of eBay, dated October 29, 2026, puts the shares at about $129 for 2028, against a price of $120.63 that day. Even on those optimistic assumptions, eBay looks expensive in the $120s, with the model's value only about 7% above the price three years out. The view would change only if eBay's growth stayed well ahead of analyst consensus beyond 2028.

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By The Brief Equity Team · Model dated · Published

Brief Equity valuation model card for eBay (EBAY): an EV/EBITDA exit model with projected revenue, EBITDA and margins to 2028 and a value for 2028.
The eBay model card as captured on October 29, 2026: the model's value, the share price that day and the projection behind them.

The model's assumptions for eBay

eBay's fiscal year is the calendar year, so each year in the table below is the company's own. The model runs three years, to 2028.

eBay: model assumptions, 2026 to 2028 (revenue and EBITDA in USD billions)
202620272028
Revenue, model12.6513.9215.17
Revenue growth, model14.0%10.0%9.0%
EBITDA, model2.973.343.72
EBITDA margin, model23.5%24.0%24.5%

Why eBay looks overvalued

eBay is a hard company to be optimistic about, and even on optimistic assumptions in Brief Equity's model it looks expensive at $120.63.

eBay's revenue barely changed from 2023 to 2024 and grew 7.95% in 2025, and it has grown by 14% or more, as reported, in each of the four quarters to September 30, 2026, against the same quarters a year earlier. Its US gross merchandise volume grew 22% on an organic basis in the third quarter of 2026, and over the 52 weeks to October 29, 2026, eBay's share price rose 20.48%.

eBay's year has also brought a takeover approach and a large acquisition. GameStop proposed to buy eBay for $125 per share in cash and stock in May 2026, and eBay's board rejected the proposal. On July 30, 2026, eBay completed its purchase of Depop from Etsy for $1.4 billion in cash; Depop posted a $108.9 million operating loss under Etsy in 2025, and according to Apptopia, Vinted overtook Depop in US weekly active app users in May 2026.

“We have concluded that your proposal is neither credible nor attractive.”

eBay rejects unsolicited proposal from GameStop, May 12, 2026

eBay's core business has weaker spots as well. Excluding the Depop and Tise acquisitions, its global active buyers grew by just over 1% in the third quarter of 2026, and management expects growth in trading cards to slow after an extraordinary 2026.

“While we expect the performance of our trading cards business to remain strong, our planning assumes growth will naturally moderate as we lap the extraordinary levels we experienced in 2026.”

Peggy Alford, Chief Financial Officer, eBay third-quarter 2026 earnings call, October 28, 2026

In the model, eBay's 2026 revenue falls inside the full-year guidance the company raised on October 28, 2026, and then grows 10% in 2027 and 9% in 2028. That compounds to 11.0% a year from 2025 to 2028, against analyst consensus of 8.9% a year over the same years. The EBITDA margin rises to 24.5% by 2028, although eBay's GAAP operating margin fell to 19.2% in the third quarter of 2026 from 20.3% a year earlier. At 15 times 2028 EBITDA, the shares come to about $129 in 2028, only about 7% above the price.

What has to be true, and what would break it

eBay looks expensive on this model even with optimistic assumptions, and the view would fail only if the business did better than those assumptions for longer.

What has to be true

  • eBay's growth slows toward analyst consensus once the trading card boom of 2026 fades.
  • eBay's EBITDA margin rises no faster than the model's climb to 24.5% by 2028.

What would break it

  • eBay's growth stays well ahead of analyst consensus beyond 2028, after trading cards slow.
  • eBay's EBITDA margin climbs faster than the model assumes.

The parts of eBay's business

eBay reports its revenue in two parts, Marketplace and Advertising, and in 2025 Advertising was less than a fifth of eBay's revenue but more than a third of its revenue growth.

eBay by part, 2025 against 2024
Share of revenueShare of revenue growth
Marketplace revenues82.0%63.0%
Advertising revenues18.0%37.0%

eBay beside its peers

eBay is compared here with eight US-listed companies chosen to cover its marketplace, its advertising business, its vehicle sales and its resale fashion business.

  • ETSY: A marketplace for second-hand and unique goods, and Depop's former owner
  • MELI: A marketplace with a growing advertising business
  • AMZN: A third-party marketplace and advertising business at large scale
  • SE: Shopee, a marketplace with advertising
  • CPRT: Online vehicle auctions, against eBay Motors
  • REAL: Authenticated luxury resale
  • TDUP: Second-hand fashion, against Depop
  • PINS: An advertising business built on shopping, against eBay's advertising
Peer comparison table for eBay (EBAY) and eight marketplace, resale and advertising companies, with each company's valuation multiples, revenue growth and margin.
eBay beside Etsy, MercadoLibre, Amazon, Sea, Copart, The RealReal, ThredUp and Pinterest on trailing multiples, as captured on October 29, 2026.

How the estimate moves with its assumptions

The two pictures below show how far the eBay estimate moves when its assumptions change: one moves two assumptions at a time, and the other runs the model many times with growth, margin and the exit multiple drawn at random.

Sensitivity grids for eBay (EBAY): the per-share value as revenue growth, EBITDA margin, the exit multiple, the discount rate and terminal growth change.
How the eBay estimate changes when two assumptions move together. The exit grids are discounted to today's dollars.
Monte Carlo distribution of per-share outcomes for eBay (EBAY), with the share price at the model's date and the median outcome marked.
The spread of outcomes for eBay when growth, margin and the exit multiple vary at random.

Questions about eBay

These questions about eBay (EBAY) are answered from the documents listed under Sources.

What is eBay's guidance for 2026?
In its third-quarter release of October 28, 2026, eBay guided full-year 2026 revenue of $12.62 billion to $12.67 billion and diluted non-GAAP earnings per share of $6.25 to $6.30, including Depop.
Does eBay pay a dividend?
eBay declared a fourth-quarter 2026 cash dividend of $0.31 per share, payable on December 18, 2026 to stockholders of record as of December 4, 2026.
How much stock is eBay buying back?
In the third quarter of 2026, eBay repurchased approximately $690 million of its shares at an average price of roughly $106, and on October 28, 2026 it said it continues to target roughly $2 billion of repurchases for 2026.
How much debt does eBay have?
At the end of the third quarter of 2026, eBay had cash and fixed income investments of $3.3 billion and gross debt of $6.7 billion.
How big is eBay's advertising business?
First-party advertising products on the eBay platform delivered $575 million of revenue in the third quarter of 2026, up 16% from a year earlier.

Sources

The quotations and facts about eBay (EBAY) on this page rest on the documents below.

About this page

Brief Equity and its team hold no position in eBay (EBAY) as of October 29, 2026.

This page is research, not investment advice. It describes one model and the assumptions behind it, and market data is delayed. Read how these models are built and our editorial policy.

Related guides: EV/EBITDA explained, What is enterprise value (EV), How to value a stock yourself (without Excel).

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