How many boutiques does Aritzia have?

Aritzia had 146 boutiques at the end of its second quarter of fiscal 2027, on August 30, 2026, compared with 134 a year earlier.

How much of Aritzia's revenue is online?

Digital net revenue was 34.4% of Aritzia's net revenue in the quarter ended August 30, 2026.

Valuation · EV/EBITDA model

Is Aritzia (ATZ.TO) stock undervalued?

Brief Equity's EV/EBITDA model of Aritzia (ATZ.TO), dated October 13, 2026, values the shares at CAD 241 by fiscal 2029, about 65% above the CAD 146.44 share price at that date. Even so, the stock looks mostly fairly valued: that estimate holds only if the United States keeps carrying revenue growth and margins keep rising for several more years. To a reader who believes both, it looks somewhat undervalued.

All valuations →

By The Brief Equity Team · Model dated October 13, 2026 · Published October 13, 2026

Brief Equity valuation model card for Aritzia (ATZ.TO): an EV/EBITDA exit model in Canadian dollars with projected revenue, EBITDA and margins for fiscal 2027 to fiscal 2029 and a target for fiscal 2029. — The Aritzia model card as captured on October 13, 2026: the target, the share price at that date and the projection behind them.

The model's assumptions for Aritzia

Aritzia's fiscal 2027 is the 52-week period ending February 28, 2027, and the model's figures are in Canadian dollars. The figures below come from a quick model, built on a small set of stated assumptions and projected over three fiscal years. Analyst consensus revenue is shown beside the model's revenue for the same years.

Aritzia: model assumptions and analyst consensus, fiscal 2027 to fiscal 2029 (revenue and EBITDA in billions of Canadian dollars)
	Fiscal 2027	Fiscal 2028	Fiscal 2029
Revenue, model	4.85	5.82	6.75
Revenue, analyst consensus	4.86	5.59	6.18
Revenue growth, model	31.0%	20.0%	16.0%
EBITDA, model	1.07	1.34	1.62
EBITDA margin, model	22.0%	23.0%	24.0%

Why Aritzia looks undervalued

Aritzia's shares rose 20.53% on October 9, 2026, the day after the company reported its second quarter of fiscal 2027. At CAD 146.44 they look mostly fairly valued. They look somewhat undervalued to a reader who believes two things: that the United States will keep carrying revenue growth, and that margins will keep rising, for several more years.

So far both have held. In the quarter ended August 30, 2026, net revenue in the United States rose 60.3% and the company's net revenue rose 44.1%. Aritzia has raised its outlook for fiscal 2027 twice, and now expects net revenue to grow by approximately 29% to 32%.

“Net revenue in the range of $4.78 billion to $4.88 billion, representing growth of approximately 29% to 32% from Fiscal 2026.”

Aritzia second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings release, October 8, 2026

Believing the first means believing that growth does not fade the way analysts expect. The model has revenue growing 31% in fiscal 2027, 20% in fiscal 2028 and 16% in fiscal 2029, where analysts' estimates imply 15.0% and 10.5% for the last two of those years. That is mostly a bet on the United States, which was 61.5% of Aritzia's net revenue in fiscal 2026 and 71.9% of that year's revenue growth.

Margins have to keep rising as well, and the model has its EBITDA margin higher in each year through fiscal 2029. Aritzia's own adjusted EBITDA margin, a measure the company defines for itself, rose from 14.3% to 17.8% in fiscal 2026, and the company expects approximately 20.0% for fiscal 2027. Its chief financial officer has said that the investments running through selling, general and administrative expenses will continue into next year and beyond.

If all of that happens, an exit multiple of 16.8 times EBITDA in fiscal 2029 produces a target of CAD 241 a share, about 65% above the share price at the model's date. That asks a great deal to keep going right for a stock that rose 70.28% over the 52 weeks before the model's date. Jefferies lowered its rating on the shares to Hold on October 13, 2026.

Asked on the company's call of October 8, 2026 for a growth rate beyond this year, Aritzia's chief financial officer left the answer for its investor day on October 27, 2026.

“Maybe I will leave the long term growth algorithm for the investor day.”

Todd Ingledew, Chief Financial Officer, Aritzia fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings call, October 8, 2026

What has to be true, and what would break it

The estimate for Aritzia holds only if the conditions below are met, and each of them can fail.

What has to be true

Revenue grows 31% in fiscal 2027, 20% in fiscal 2028 and 16% in fiscal 2029, where analysts' estimates imply 15.0% and 10.5% for the last two years.
The United States, 61.5% of net revenue in fiscal 2026, keeps carrying that growth.
The model's EBITDA margin rises in each year through fiscal 2029 while spending on growth continues.
The shares are valued at 16.8 times EBITDA in fiscal 2029.

What would break it

Revenue growth fades to the 15.0% and 10.5% that analysts' estimates imply for fiscal 2028 and fiscal 2029.
The United States stops carrying revenue growth before fiscal 2029.
Continued spending on growth holds the margin flat.
The multiple applied in fiscal 2029 is lower than 16.8 times EBITDA.

The parts of Aritzia's business

Aritzia reports its net revenue for two countries. The table gives each country's share of net revenue and of the year's revenue growth.

Aritzia by part, fiscal 2026 against fiscal 2025
	Share of revenue	Share of revenue growth
United States	61.5%	71.9%
Canada	38.5%	28.1%

Aritzia beside its peers

Aritzia is compared with seven companies: one that runs its own stores and brand in both countries, one Canadian fashion retailer that is also opening stores in the United States, and five apparel retailers in the United States.

LULU: premium own-brand stores and online, in Canada and the United States
GRGD.TO: a Canadian women's fashion retailer opening stores in the United States
URBN: premium women's fashion in the United States
ANF: specialty apparel in the United States, in stores and online
AEO: young women's apparel in the United States
GAP: apparel in the United States at scale
BOOT: a United States retailer valued on new-store growth

Peer comparison table for Aritzia (ATZ.TO) and seven peers, with each company's valuation multiples, revenue growth and margin. — Aritzia beside its seven peers on trailing multiples, as captured on October 13, 2026.

How the estimate moves with its assumptions

The estimate for Aritzia depends on its assumptions, and the two pictures below show how far it moves when they change. The first varies two assumptions at a time. The second runs the model many times with growth, margin and the exit multiple varied at random.

Sensitivity grids for Aritzia (ATZ.TO): the per-share value as revenue growth, EBITDA margin, the exit multiple, the discount rate and terminal growth change. — How the Aritzia estimate changes when two assumptions move together. The exit grids are discounted to today's dollars.

Monte Carlo distribution of per-share outcomes for Aritzia (ATZ.TO), with the share price at the model's date and the median outcome marked. — The spread of outcomes for Aritzia when growth, margin and the exit multiple vary at random.

Questions about Aritzia

These questions about Aritzia (ATZ.TO) are answered from the documents listed under Sources.

How many boutiques does Aritzia have?: Aritzia had 146 boutiques at the end of its second quarter of fiscal 2027, on August 30, 2026, compared with 134 a year earlier.
How much of Aritzia's revenue is online?: Digital net revenue was 34.4% of Aritzia's net revenue in the quarter ended August 30, 2026.

Sources

The quotations and facts about Aritzia (ATZ.TO) on this page rest on the documents below.

Aritzia second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings release, October 8, 2026
Aritzia fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings call, October 8, 2026
Aritzia fiscal 2027 first-quarter earnings call, July 9, 2026
Aritzia fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 earnings release, May 7, 2026
Daily share prices for Aritzia, October 13, 2026
52-week share price change for Aritzia, October 13, 2026
Analyst rating changes for Aritzia, October 13, 2026

About this page

Brief Equity and its team hold no position in Aritzia (ATZ.TO) as of October 13, 2026.

This page is research, not investment advice. It describes one model and the assumptions behind it, and market data is delayed. Read how these models are built and our editorial policy.