What adjusted earnings per share does Altria expect for 2026?

As of October 29, 2026, Altria expected 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $5.66 to $5.74, a growth rate of 4.5% to 6.0% from a base of $5.42 in 2025.

What are Altria's goals for 2028?

Altria's annual report for 2025 sets a goal of a mid-single-digit compound annual growth rate in adjusted diluted EPS in 2028 from a $4.87 base in 2022. It also aims to keep a total adjusted OCI margin of at least 60% in each year through 2028.

How much did Altria pay out in dividends and buybacks in 2025?

In 2025 Altria paid $6,960 million in dividends on its common stock and spent $1,000 million on share repurchases, against $9,290 million of net cash provided by operating activities.

How much of AB InBev does Altria own?

At September 30, 2026, Altria held an approximate 8.1% ownership interest in AB InBev, made up of approximately 125 million restricted shares and approximately 34 million ordinary shares.

Valuation · EV/EBITDA model

Is Altria (MO) stock undervalued?

On November 2, 2026, with the shares at $77.63, a quick EV/EBITDA model by Brief Equity valued Altria at about $90 for 2028. Altria looks modestly undervalued on that model, with a dividend raised 61 times in 57 years, as long as price increases keep making up for the cigarettes it no longer sells.

All valuations →

By The Brief Equity Team · Model dated November 2, 2026 · Published November 2, 2026

Brief Equity valuation model card for Altria (MO): an EV/EBITDA exit model with projected revenue, EBITDA and margins to 2028. — The Altria model card as captured on November 2, 2026: the model's value, the share price and the projection behind it.

The model's assumptions for Altria

Altria's fiscal year is the calendar year, and the last year it has reported is 2025. The model runs three years, to 2028. Every row below is the model's own except the analyst consensus revenue.

Altria: model assumptions, 2026 to 2028 (revenues net of excise taxes and EBITDA in USD billions)
	2026	2027	2028
Revenues net of excise taxes, model	20.50	20.87	21.25
Revenue growth, model	1.8%	1.8%	1.8%
EBITDA, model	12.53	12.75	12.98
EBITDA margin, model	61.1%	61.1%	61.1%
Revenues net of excise taxes, analyst consensus	20.71	20.93	21.26

Why Altria looks undervalued

On its earnings call of October 29, 2026, asked about this year's cigarette volumes, Altria's chief executive, Salvatore Mancuso, said that nicotine has held up somewhat better over time than other consumer packaged goods.

“I would say, though, that nicotine, historically, has been a little bit more resilient than other CPG categories, for sure.”

Salvatore Mancuso, Chief Executive Officer, Altria third-quarter 2026 earnings call, October 29, 2026

Altria's cigarette shipments in the United States were approximately 126.0 billion units in 2015 and 61.8 billion units in 2025, while the reported operating companies income of its smokeable products segment rose from $7,569 million to $10,984 million. In 2025, when the segment's domestic cigarette shipments fell 10.0%, its adjusted operating companies income still rose 1.3%, primarily because of higher pricing.

Altria's volume decline has also slowed. The company estimates that domestic cigarette industry volume fell 5% in the first nine months of 2026, after an estimated 8% in 2025, and its chief executive attributed the moderation mainly to fewer smokers moving to illicit e-vapor products.

The model takes Altria's revenue growth from analyst consensus, 1.8% a year from 2025 to 2028, and holds the EBITDA margin at 61.1%. With an exit multiple of 11 times EBITDA, the model values Altria at about $90 a share for 2028, about 16% above the share price.

Altria's annualized dividend is $4.44 a share after its 61st increase in 57 years, and its goal is mid-single-digit growth in the dividend per share each year through 2028.

What has to be true, and what would break it

Altria looks undervalued on this model as long as price increases keep making up for the cigarettes it no longer sells.

What has to be true

Price increases keep covering Altria's falling cigarette volume, as they did in 2025.
Altria's revenues net of excise taxes grow close to the 1.8% a year that analyst consensus expects from 2025 to 2028.
The market pays about 11 times Altria's EBITDA at the end of 2028.

What would break it

The decline in cigarette volume speeds up again, back toward the estimated 8% industry decline of 2025.
Price increases stop covering the lost volume and Altria's EBITDA margin falls below the 61.1% the model holds.
The market pays less than 11 times Altria's EBITDA at the end of 2028.

The parts of Altria's business

Altria reports its net revenues, which include excise taxes, by product, and cigarettes made up most of them in 2025. Altria's net revenues fell in 2025, so no part's share of growth is shown.

Altria by part, 2025 against 2024
	Share of revenue
Cigarettes	82.7%
Cigars	5.3%
Oral tobacco products	12.0%

Altria beside its peers

Altria is compared here with four US-listed tobacco companies, chosen to cover its cigarettes, its oral tobacco and the leaf tobacco the industry buys.

PM: Cigarettes outside the United States, and nicotine pouches
BTI: Reynolds, the other large US cigarette maker
TPB: Oral tobacco: moist snuff and nicotine pouches
UVV: Leaf tobacco, supplied to cigarette makers

Peer comparison table for Altria (MO) and four tobacco companies. — Altria against the four peers listed above, on the trailing multiples the card shows.

How the estimate moves with its assumptions

The two Altria cards below test the estimate: the sensitivity grids move two assumptions at a time, and the Monte Carlo card reruns the model many times with growth, margin and the exit multiple drawn at random.

Sensitivity grids for the Altria (MO) model, moving two assumptions at a time. — How the Altria value moves when two assumptions change together. The exit grids are discounted to today's dollars.

Monte Carlo distribution of values for the Altria (MO) model. — The spread of Altria values when the model is rerun with its assumptions drawn at random.

Questions about Altria

These questions about Altria (MO) are answered from the documents listed under Sources.

What adjusted earnings per share does Altria expect for 2026?: As of October 29, 2026, Altria expected 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $5.66 to $5.74, a growth rate of 4.5% to 6.0% from a base of $5.42 in 2025.
What are Altria's goals for 2028?: Altria's annual report for 2025 sets a goal of a mid-single-digit compound annual growth rate in adjusted diluted EPS in 2028 from a $4.87 base in 2022. It also aims to keep a total adjusted OCI margin of at least 60% in each year through 2028.
How much did Altria pay out in dividends and buybacks in 2025?: In 2025 Altria paid $6,960 million in dividends on its common stock and spent $1,000 million on share repurchases, against $9,290 million of net cash provided by operating activities.
How much of AB InBev does Altria own?: At September 30, 2026, Altria held an approximate 8.1% ownership interest in AB InBev, made up of approximately 125 million restricted shares and approximately 34 million ordinary shares.

Sources

The quotations and facts about Altria (MO) on this page rest on the documents below.

Altria third-quarter 2026 results release, October 29, 2026
Altria third-quarter 2026 earnings call, October 29, 2026
Altria quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the third quarter of 2026, October 29, 2026
Altria annual report on Form 10-K for 2025, February 25, 2026
Altria annual report on Form 10-K for 2015, February 25, 2016

About this page

Brief Equity and its team hold no position in Altria (MO) as of November 2, 2026.

This page is research, not investment advice. It describes one model and the assumptions behind it, and market data is delayed. Read how these models are built and our editorial policy.