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Valuation · EV/EBITDA model

Is Albany International (AIN) stock undervalued?

Brief Equity's EV/EBITDA model of Albany International, built on October 26, 2026 with the shares at $62.61, reaches a target of about $109 for 2028. On that model the stock looks undervalued, provided the amended CH-53K helicopter contract holds and Albany International adds the capacity to build more missile parts.

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By The Brief Equity Team · Model dated · Published

Brief Equity valuation model card for Albany International (AIN): an EV/EBITDA exit model with projected revenue, EBITDA, margins and cash flow to 2028, and a target for 2028.
The Albany International model card as captured on October 26, 2026: the target, the share price that day and the projection behind them.

The model's assumptions for Albany International

Albany International is valued here with a quick model that projects 2026 to 2028 and applies 12 times EBITDA at the end of 2028. The first table holds the model's revenue and EBITDA, and the second sets its revenue beside the analyst consensus.

Albany International: model assumptions, 2026 to 2028 (revenue and EBITDA in $ millions)
202620272028
Revenue, model1,301.091,398.681,503.58
Revenue growth, model10.0%7.5%7.5%
EBITDA, model195.16237.77278.16
EBITDA margin, model15.0%17.0%18.5%
Albany International: model revenue and analyst consensus revenue, 2026 to 2028 ($ millions)
202620272028
Revenue, model1,301.091,398.681,503.58
Revenue, analyst consensus1300.141381.851469.00

Why Albany International looks undervalued

Albany International’s share price fell 23.2% from October 23, 2023 to October 23, 2026, while the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) rose 89.3% over the same dates, both measured on price alone.

Albany International recorded a $155.9 million change in the estimated profitability of its CH-53K helicopter contracts in 2025, and its operating result went from income of $131.4 million in 2024 to a loss of $36.1 million. On September 1, 2026 it announced an amended CH-53K contract with Sikorsky, said it would keep the Salt Lake City facility it had been reviewing for a sale, and said it expects the contract modification to generate positive cash flow beginning in 2027.

Albany International’s adjusted EBITDA margin was 17.6% in the second quarter of 2026, and the adjusted EBITDA margin of its Engineered Composites segment rose to 13.3% from 8.5% a year earlier. The model takes the EBITDA margin from 15.0% in 2026 to 18.5% in 2028, with revenue growth of 10.0% in 2026 and 7.5% in each of 2027 and 2028, against analyst consensus of 6.3% for 2027 and for 2028. At 12 times EBITDA the model gives a target of about $109 for 2028, about 74% above the price on the model’s date.

Albany International makes missile bodies for Lockheed Martin’s JASSM missiles, and in September 2025 it received multiyear contracts extending its JASSM and LRASM work through 2029. On the first-quarter 2026 call its chief executive said the customer had asked for more output.

“For both JASSM and LRASM missiles, we have been requested by our customer to increase production, bringing output to the highest level achievable within our current capabilities, including through the use of overtime.”

Gunnar Kleveland, President and Chief Executive Officer, Albany International first-quarter 2026 earnings call, April 30, 2026

Albany International’s customer on those missiles, Lockheed Martin, was awarded a further $825.97 million contract modification for JASSM and LRASM by the US Air Force in September 2026, and the plans reported with it could support more than 1,000 of the two missiles a year, against 450 JASSMs and 115 LRASMs funded in the fiscal 2025 budget.

Albany International’s government work is still a small part of the whole: about 35% of Engineered Composites’ 2025 revenue related to U.S. government contracts or programs, and Engineered Composites was 40.1% of the company’s revenue.

What has to be true, and what would break it

Albany International's target rests on the CH-53K amendment holding, and on margins and missile capacity that keep rising.

What has to be true

  • The amended CH-53K contract offsets the program’s projected losses and turns cash positive from 2027, as Albany International expects.
  • The EBITDA margin rises from 15.0% in 2026 to 18.5% in 2028.
  • Albany International adds the capacity to build more missile parts as JASSM and LRASM orders grow.
  • Buyers pay 12 times EBITDA for the business at the end of 2028.

What would break it

  • The CH-53K program keeps losing money after the amendment.
  • Albany International cannot add missile capacity, so its output stays at what its current plants allow.

The parts of Albany International's business

Albany International has two parts: Machine Clothing, which makes belts and fabrics for paper machines, and Albany Engineered Composites, which makes aerospace and defense components. Revenue fell in 2025, so no share of growth is shown.

Albany International by part, 2025
Share of revenue
Machine Clothing59.9%
Albany Engineered Composites40.1%

Albany International beside its peers

Albany International is compared here with six companies: four makers of aerospace and defense structures and components, one maker of engine parts, and one supplier to the paper industry.

  • HXL: Aerospace composites, including the LEAP engine and the Boeing 787
  • DCO: Aerostructures and missile structures for defense prime contractors
  • KRMN: Missile and space structures
  • CW: Defense components
  • HWM: Engine parts, including the LEAP engine
  • KAI: Equipment for the paper industry, beside Machine Clothing
Peer comparison table for Albany International (AIN) and six peers, with each company's valuation multiples, revenue growth and margin.
Albany International beside its six peers on trailing multiples, as captured on October 26, 2026.

How the estimate moves with its assumptions

Albany International's estimate moves when its assumptions do, and the two pictures below show by how much. One changes two assumptions at a time, and the other runs the model many times with its main inputs drawn at random.

Sensitivity grids for Albany International (AIN): the value per share as revenue growth, EBITDA margin, the exit multiple, the discount rate and terminal growth change.
How the Albany International estimate changes when two assumptions move together. The exit grids are discounted to today's dollars.
Monte Carlo distribution of per-share outcomes for Albany International (AIN), with the share price on the model's date and the median outcome marked.
The spread of outcomes for Albany International when the model runs many times with its inputs drawn at random.

Questions about Albany International

These questions about Albany International (AIN) are answered from the documents listed under Sources.

Who is Albany International's largest customer?
Safran, mainly through fan blades and cases for the LEAP engine, accounted for approximately 15% of Albany International's consolidated net revenues in 2025.
How large was the backlog of Albany Engineered Composites?
Backlog at Albany Engineered Composites was $1.4 billion as of December 31, 2025.
How much debt does Albany International carry?
At June 30, 2026 Albany International had cash and cash equivalents of $77.3 million and total debt of $450.7 million, a net debt position of $373.3 million.

Sources

The quotations and facts about Albany International (AIN) on this page rest on the documents below.

About this page

Brief Equity and its team hold no position in Albany International (AIN) as of October 26, 2026.

This page is research, not investment advice. It describes one model and the assumptions behind it, and market data is delayed. Read how these models are built and our editorial policy.

Related guides: EV/EBITDA explained, What is enterprise value (EV).

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